Research

This paper examines the uncertainty involved in extrapolating education effects measured within short observation windows to lifetime welfare. I document the timing information available in existing studies and develop a model of educational attainment with and without a policy. Calibrated logistic curves describe alternative paths that match selected education estimates while allowing permanent changes in eventual attainment and temporary changes in acquisition speed or timing. Two deterministic simulations show how these alternatives change lifetime earnings values and how additional observations can narrow their range. I then apply the model to 38 policy calculations, reconstruct ranges for the marginal value of public funds (MVPF), and propose an ordering rule based on those ranges. Under the specified path and valuation assumptions, the same short-window education evidence can support conflicting welfare judgments even when the estimated effects are treated as known.

This paper examines the effects of recreational marijuana legalization (RML) on educational attainment in the United States. Exploiting variation from the staggered adoption of RML across states, I find that RML reduces the probability of earning a bachelor’s degree within four, five, and six years by 3.8%, 2.0%, and 3.1%, respectively, relative to pre-treatment means. In addition, RML lowers the three-year graduation rate at two-year colleges by 6.0% relative to the pre-treatment mean. These effects suggest that RML not only delays degree completion but may also lower educational attainment in the longer run. I further find that RML reduces grade point average (GPA) among currently enrolled college students ages 18–24 and study time among individuals in the same age range. Increases in marijuana-use frequency and other substance use among college-age individuals are plausible mechanisms, although the data do not establish their contribution to the educational effects. These findings highlight the potential educational costs of marijuana legalization alongside the documented benefits identified in prior research.

I use the geographic randomization of Medicare’s End-Stage Renal Disease Treatment Choices (ETC) Model to study how payment incentives affect home dialysis supply. Linking facility entry histories to annual cost reports, I follow fixed entry cohorts and incumbent facilities through 2024. Statistically significant increases in home dialysis–providing facilities and Medicare home treatments are concentrated among early entrants. A similar pattern is not evident among incumbents or across the covered market. For the first payment-period cohort, an accounting decomposition assigns most of the supply increase to entrant numbers, with a smaller contribution from service per entrant. Higher reported training and administrative staffing accompany this expansion. Supplementary market estimates show lower long-term catheter use and higher fistula use; effects on mortality, hospitalization, and geographic access remain imprecisely estimated. These findings suggest that new facilities can be a margin of supply adjustment to payment reform, although broader welfare gains remain uncertain.